Saturday, January 31, 2009
Provincial Elections, Obama and the Future of Iraq
I would like to zoom out a bit here and talk about other issues/factors that come into play on the back of these elections. these are;
1-First and foremost is Iran! Iran is pulling the strings behind the scenes in Iraq on ALL levels! The US, having screwed it up big time after the invasion, paved the way for Iran to be the most influential power in Iraq, in fact so powerful, even the US can't stand up to Iran in Iraq and they know it. Now, with Obama at the steering wheel, this fact counts and it's one of the major reasons the US is going to pull out because they (the US) lost the covert war to Iran in Iraq. Now let me get this straight, the US is NOT going to pull out of Iraq literally for Iran to take absolute control of Iraq and it's resources, they won't do that and they also can't politically afford to keep their troops in Iraq for much longer so what are their options? well, showmanship aside is to sit and talk to Iran about how to split the winnings in Iraq! huh! interesting isn't it? after all the trash talk show by Ahmadinejad and the very aggressive responses from the US so far but it is the most logical way ahead. I know many of you will sat that this is just nonsense but I beg to differ on this one! How the Iraq pie is going to be split is more of an unknown for me but I can see a reduced pressure on Iran from now on whilst the US negotiates with Iran on long term goals and interests in Iraq and that's exactly where Iran wants the US to be.
2-Another interesting thing about this elections is what's going to happen next and I think that this election is the first step towards the disintegration of what used to be Iraq into three smaller states. Why? because Iraqis, ordinary ones, will vote again along sectarian lines which will, most probably, lead to the same combination of parties in power. This of course is better for the US as well cause it is easier for the US to deal with three smaller and shaky states than one unified and stronger state especially when the powers that be in these three smaller fractions will be bending far backwards and will do anything to stay in power and keep things the way they are for them and knowing how scared each one of these smaller states will be from the other two will make this a whole lot easier, don't you think?
3-One of the other things that is worth mentioning is how clever the Iranians have been in playing their cards in Iraq. They got Al Hakeem, whom is their strongest and favorite boy but to keep their ducks in a row so to speak, they got Al Maliki fighting with Al Hakeem for more power and influence and to keep things even more interesting, they got Al Sadr as the Joker card that they chose not to use for the time being against either or both just because they don't need to! So we now have both Al Hakeem and Al Maliki literally struggling to prove their allegiance to Iran and don't be fooled by the recent nationalistic gestures that Al Maliki has shown recently. It's all tricks to get more of his followers elected to the provincial councils and prove to Iran that he is the man that get things done.
4-The Kurds will "eventually" get what they want thanks to the increasing US satisfaction with their continuing and persisting expression of "unlimited loyalty" and for the record, the Kurds are their most loyal allies in Iraq from the US point of view since they have no Iraqi nationalistic or Arab or patriotic inclinations what so ever coupled with no religious dogmatism. This makes the Kurds the perfect partner for the US. Let's not forget the fact that they also are working really hard on improving their relations with the Israelis and Jews starting with the Talibani's son, Qabad!
5-The Sunnis have lost it! they are today weaker than they ever were. Thanks to their political naivety, disorganization and just plain stupidity. I won't be surprised if they lost the Speaker of the Parliament position
(the only relevant government position) cause the other political powers now know how divided and weak they are. They will definitely get the shortest end of the stick if you know what I mean!
Sunday, August 3, 2008
The Lives of Others
The reason why I felt I would share my admiration of this particular movie with you is what happens at the end of the movie where it shows Georg Dreyman just realizing that he was actually under surveillance for years while he thought he wasn't cause he knew that had he been under domestic surveillance, he would have been put in jail years earlier. It goes on to show how the East Germans dealt with crossing from the pre- to the post-soviet era, the transition from absolute fear to absolute freedom which in many was similar to what happened in Iraq since 2003. You can't help but wonder how Iraq would look like now had we been a bit civilized and humane in the way we treated each other during the transition? and I call transition but it was not really a transition. We just replaced one tyrant with gang of tyrants and one thief with a gang of thieves. The problem is most Iraqis are still being driven by fear from each other that is implanted and nurtured by the religious/political figures currently in power. Those could not care less about Iraq and the Iraqis. They only thing that these political and religious leaders (Sunnis and Shi'a) have or will care about is power and money, no more, no less and the hell with the Iraqis. Unfortunately, Iraqis are still buying that and I'm almost sure that comes the next elections, Iraqis will vote in the same sectarian way they did last time and that is mainly owed to the ignorance and consistent brain washing that ordinary Iraqis have been exposed to. It will take generations to get rid of the sectarian divide cause there is just too many beneficiaries from this divide to go away now and these are the people in power plus the neighboring countries.
Back to the movie, one other thing that struck me is that Georg Dreyman was able to retrieve the surveillance reports and know exactly who was the individual spying on him and then track down where the spy was. The fact that the spy, Wiesler, was still alive, working as a postman and traceable surprised me cause I remembered how ALL the records of the Iraqi state were destroyed and burnt and how the "de- baathification" was quickly set up and how the army was dismantled in a haste and that all led to the mess that we have seen over the past five years. History, which is something that we Arabs and Iraqis always try to remind ourselves of, always tells us that to move forward, you have to forgive. The Germans did just that. They just turned the page and worked together for a better Germnany. They did not listen to imported religious agendas that is clearly working against the interest of their country. I think I have said enough but I couldn't help think what a great nation mean! just a food for thought.
Sunday, July 27, 2008
Updates
On another note, I am really sad to see how the so called democracy in is Iraq showing the real face! Because the Iraqi Parliament passed a new provincial elections law that was not in the interest of the Kurds, the presidency council just vetoed that law sending it back to the parliament so they can pass the "right" law this time. What a joke!
Kirkuk is the price that the Kurds demanded to support the Arab Shi'a in gaining control over the parliament which paved the way to taking over the whole country stiffing up the Arab Sunnis and now it's pay time!
One thing that I would like to VERY CLEARLY say is that I have nothing against Iraqis, the ordinary Iraqis whether they were Arab or Kurds whether they were Sunnis or Shi'a. I really don't. It's just that I'm sick and tired of the politicians, all of them. They are buying and selling Iraq like Iraq is a private property with their names on it! We thought we had a tyrant and we were praying to get rid of him. Now, we have so many of them, I don't know where to begin.
I really am running out of words and will cut it short now! what happened since 2003 has been a series of disappointments that increases in size as time goes by. I really feel sorry for ordinary Iraqis, nobody is looking after them not before, not at present and not in the future.
Saturday, July 12, 2008
Iraqi Oil-The Greatest Robbery in the History of Mankind
The following are new notes and observations;
1-Iraq is officially flinging open six of its major oilfields, accounting for half of its known reserves, to foreign investors. According to Iraq's oil minister, the long-term contracts will be signed within a year. While ostensibly under the control of the Iraq National Oil Company, foreign corporations will keep 75% of the value of the contracts, leaving just 25% for their Iraqi partners. That kind of ratio is unheard of in oil-rich Arab Gulf states.
2-According to Greg Muttitt, a London-based oil expert, the assumption up until now was that foreign multinationals would be brought in to develop new fields in Iraq - not to take over those which are already in production and therefore require minimal technical support. "The policy was always to allocate these fields to the Iraq National Oil Company," he said. "This is a total reversal of that policy, giving the Iraq National Oil Company a mere 25% instead of the planned 100%."
I won't comment as I said but will keep you posted on any new updates!
Sunday, June 22, 2008
We Lost and We Deserve it.
Watching the EURO 2008, and I know that the comparison is unfair but hey, these are the same teams our team will play against if they make to the finals (which they didn't), one can see the huge difference between the European and Asian footballs. It's as if they are playing a difefrent game.
I'm not usually the type of guy who blames the coach for every loss but this time, I DO. He went in with the mentality of "a draw will be enough for us", we had only poor Imad Mohammed running solo at the front against the entire Qatari defense so no wonder why we did not score!, we played with 5 players in midfield but that did not help a lot because we were slow, un-organized, and could not even pass the ball accurately and there was basically no plan, since the very beginning, you see the gola keeper shooting the ball from a goal kick! something I have not seen for years! these long aimless shots reminded of how we used to play we were teenagers in our neighbourhood! and I should add, the players did not do their best at all, we have seen what they can do and what they did today is not even close to what they can do.
All in all, we did not deserve to win cause we did not play for it and Good luck for the Qataris and for the Iraqis, try to be positive and find yourselves something else to make you feel better, perhaps "Mheibis" or "6aolee".
Friday, June 20, 2008
Oil giants lining up for slice of Iraqi resources!
Now let's have a closer look folks: first these are NO-BID contracts! and I would like to ask WHY? WHY NO BID? do you think that Iraq will get the best out of this deal by making these a NO BID contracts? OF COURSE NOT! Furthermore, Let's assume that these folks were playing advisory roles to the minister of oil in Iraq, do you think that these guys will give advise that would undermine their long term interests in Iraqi natural resources and any opportunity of giving their respective companies an edge against other oil companies that are willing to fairly compete? NO, of course.
Also, if the Iraqi oil ministry wanted some advise from oil experts, don't you think that it would have been much cheaper to hire experts and pay them handsomely rather than now pay $2.0 billion in No-bid contracts in return for some advise and some management expertise to the oil ministry? what do you think Me Shahrestani?
Few final points I would like you to know or refresh your memory about. These are; 1-Back in 2003, all the Iraqi governmental establishments (buildings, HQs, warehouses... absolutely everything) were left out by the US forces for the looters to virtually strip them clean EXCEPT for the Oil Ministry HQ! 2-Iraq's 2008 budget of US$46.8 billion was calculated based on US$57 per barrel oil, roughly less than half the current market rate. I wonder where the extra income will go, we'll see! keep an eye on that. 3-Condi said in an interview on FOX News "The United States government has stayed out of the matter of awarding the Iraq oil contracts. It's a private sector matter". Really! I mean why do you want to insult our intelligence? do you really think that anybody with some brain will buy that? give me a break.
Tuesday, June 17, 2008
Iraqi Government Proves it Again!
Iran has since 2003, has left no stone unturned in pursuing harm to Iraq and Iraqis and played every dirty trick in the books to do so and what did our leaders in the government do? they return/reward that by kicking out one of the very few cards that they can almost readily use against Iran (that is if they want to use them in the first place which obviously is not the case!). This is politics 101, "IF" you want Iran to stop interfering in Iraq, start interfering in Iran by supporting the likes of Mujahidee Khalq and others and then you have a couple of cards that you can show on the negotiations table, otherwise, you have nothing to negotiate with. Obviously, that is not the intention of the Iraqi government here!!!!!
One last thing that I would like to remind the government and Mr Al Hakeem of is that during Saddam's era, many of the current militias in power including like Badr Brigades, were considered terrorist in the eyes of Saddam but Iran did not kick them out of Iran, on the contrary, Iran supported, trained and financed Al Badr brigade sparing it for a rainy day and the day came in 2003. Now we see Badr Brigades is well positioned in the Iraqi army, the interior ministry and many other sensitive position. Why not do what Iran did, I'm sure we Iraqis will benefit from Mujahidee Khalq some time in the future rather than kicking them out considering that these folks are un-armed?
Sunday, June 15, 2008
The Most Un-Patriotic People on Earth!
Most Iraqis agree that Saddam Hussein was a tyrant and a war criminal and during his era in power, Iraqis suffered the unthinkable and when he was toppled, I for one, was very happy to see his time as a ruler of Iraq come to an end and was really looking forward to a much brighter future for my country and see Iraq takes it’s position between the nations of the world. Iraqis have suffered enough under Saddam and they deserve every chance to live and lead a normal life but that, of course, did not happen. Instead, Iraqis have and still are suffering yet again but now under the rule of a bunch of traitors who have sold their souls and their country to the highest bidder be it the US or Iran in the most disgustful and disgraceful way.
With the wisdom of hindsight, one has to think WHY? Why Iraqis have to go through this? What did we do that no other nation in the entire world has done that we deserve all this forever going agony and suffering? I don’t know really and wish somebody can tell me BUT what I know is that we Iraqis are the MOST UNPATRIOTIC PEOPLE ON THIS PLANET! Why? Because you would think that after sharing all the pain under Saddam (excluding most of the traitors in power whom have not shared that with the rest of Iraqis and which explain their indifference about Iraq and Iraqis), we Iraqis would really be looking forward to turn the page on the Saddam Era and look forward to re-building our country and shaping up a better future for us and for future generations but what we did? We get engrossed into a sectarian civil war provoked and initiated by our very neighboring enemies and we spend all our might and energy killing each other and meanwhile the people whom we elected (and we can’t blame anybody else but ourselves for electing those traitors) to lead us out of the mess diligently rob us of the chance of a better life to the last Iraqi Dinar and laugh their way to Swiss banks (if you know what I mean)!! Did we do what the Germans, Japanese or even Koreans did? NO! Why? Because we don’t love Iraq enough to remember that it is not about us now, it is about our country! We failed miserably as citizens of this great country. We are no match to our ancestors and forefathers who built this country over thousands of years and now we are just a bunch of losers fighting for short term gains forgetting the blessing of being called an Iraqi and what that means.
One more thing, where do you think these politicians that we elected to lead us come from? They didn’t come from another universe or traveled through a fourth dimension from a parallel universe! No, they are Iraqis born and bred (wait, many of the most influential politicians were “imported” by the genius US administration but that’s for another future blog) that WE elected! Nobody else elected them but we and we did that because we are ignorant and stupid enough to believe in the religious leaders (and these guys are one rotten bunch of power and money hungry criminals, Sunnis and Shiites, no exception) who know very well that peace and harmony do not serve their interest in power and money, lots of money, and Iraqis bought the advice of their respective religious leaders and look where are we now! It is fair to say that Iraqis are paying the costly price of their bad and ignorant choices. We should take a moment (may be longer than that from some of us!) as Iraqis and think, really think hard about what we need to do to save ourselves and our country from being divided and sold to Iran, the US, Saudi Arabia or anybody else cause Iraq deserve better. The question is: are we worth that? Think again!
In closing, many of us still blame Saddam for what is going on in Iraq and that’s, with all due respect, is a heap of BS. Yes he (or his actions) may have been behind some of our misery but Saddam (having been long captured and hanged) is not the reason. It is us and it’s time to admit that and work for a better Iraq, otherwise, we (and Iraq) will be history and not a bright one for sure.
Give the Power to Iraqi Christians
I have been watching how ALL the corrupt and criminal Iraqi so called politicians (Shiites, Sunnis, Arabs and Kurds) have been systematically pushing the whole country to the ground, doing anything that may spring in anybody's mind (no matter how filthy that mind can be) to steal more and more out of Iraq's money with an unprecedented disregard to their citizens interests let alone the country's interest, the citizens who elected them to power in the first place!
I can bet any money that you will not find anywhere in the world a government that really COULD NOT CARE LESS about their country! They literally gave this term a new meaning that nobody has ever managed to demonstrate. They raised the “I couldn’t care less” bar so high (or should I say so lowered it so low!) to a never been explored territories ever by human kind. Ok, I think we all get it now, I hope.
Now, back to the point, having thought about what would be the best way to get Iraq out of this mess caused by the corrupted political system and I got to a very interesting conclusion, give the power to Christians whom to me are way more patriotic! I know most of Iraqis will be shocked to hear that and I’m sure that this has not crossed the minds of many of us but bear with me a bit, the main reason why we are in such a mess is that the Islamic political parties (Shiites and Sunnis) have proved without any doubt that they do not deserve the trust of Iraqis to put it politely. All what these Islamic parties care about is money and power, plain and simple and they will do anything to keep that no matter how evil, filthy and inhumane any action will be and they will do it because on each side they will find a Sayed or an Imam who will tell them that what they did or will do is approved and blessed by God (which raises many questions in my mind but will keep those for a future post). So the best thing to get out of this is Give it to the Iraqi Christians, let them govern the country and give the Shiites and Sunnis the Parliament to work together as an opposition front. With this, you can guarantee that things will be fair and square. Christians will govern knowing that the Islamic parties will be breathing down their necks waiting for them to cock up, Islamic parties will use their energy to monitor the performance of the Christian government which will give them something to toy with other than f*cking up the lives of Iraqis as they have been diligently doing for the past five years and I guarantee you, Iraq will be a much better place for Iraqis. Just think about it, it may sound odd but believe me, if it was given the chance to happen, it will work way better than it is now (mind you, anything will be better than the mess Iraqi is in now). Peace for now.
Sunday, June 8, 2008
Al Maliki's Visit to Tehran
I am not sure what Al Maliki was really trying to get out of this visit? the official word is that he's trying to assure the bosses in Iran that any US bases in Iraq will not be used to launch any attacks against Iran in the future. Now I stand corrected here but having monitored the American way of doing things in Iraq, I don't think that the Americans will even bother telling him or the Iraqi government (current or future ones) of any plans to strike Iran. They just won't. Why would they? they will be taking the element of surprise out of it if you know what I mean! Anyway, I guess the whole purpose of the trip is to swear allegiance (again!) . As expected, Al Hakeem (Iran's main man, whom is already there) joined Al Maliki there but I don't really know under what official title he was representing Iraq? wait, on second thought, and considering how much Al Hakeem and his family own in Iraq by now, he does not really need any official title to talk on behalf of the Iraqis!
P.S.: Al Maliki had to take off his tie when he visited Ali Khamenei (!!!!) knowing that the ayatollah will not be happy to see one of the boys wearing a tie in his presence. A new low for Al Maliki let alone visiting Al Khomeini's burial ground.
