Provincial Elections, Obama and the Future of Iraq

It will be interesting to see the outcome of the provincial elections that took place in Iraq earlier today. I am not very optimistic about it considering the short history of the absolutely corrupt and dysfunctional political and governmental system in Iraq coupled with a largely ignorant, religiously brain-washed, non-patriotic people. I expect that the majority of the political parties will keep a strong hold on the majority of the representation in these provincial elections not because of the massive electoral votes but owing to the fact that these parties without a shadow of a doubt will do ANYTHING to win in these elections whether it was legal or not!

I would like to zoom out a bit here and talk about other issues/factors that come into play on the back of these elections. these are;

1-First and foremost is Iran! Iran is pulling the strings behind the scenes in Iraq on ALL levels! The US, having screwed it up big time after the invasion, paved the way for Iran to be the most influential power in Iraq, in fact so powerful, even the US can't stand up to Iran in Iraq and they know it. Now, with Obama at the steering wheel, this fact counts and it's one of the major reasons the US is going to pull out because they (the US) lost the covert war to Iran in Iraq. Now let me get this straight, the US is NOT going to pull out of Iraq literally for Iran to take absolute control of Iraq and it's resources, they won't do that and they also can't politically afford to keep their troops in Iraq for much longer so what are their options? well, showmanship aside is to sit and talk to Iran about how to split the winnings in Iraq! huh! interesting isn't it? after all the trash talk show by Ahmadinejad and the very aggressive responses from the US so far but it is the most logical way ahead. I know many of you will sat that this is just nonsense but I beg to differ on this one! How the Iraq pie is going to be split is more of an unknown for me but I can see a reduced pressure on Iran from now on whilst the US negotiates with Iran on long term goals and interests in Iraq and that's exactly where Iran wants the US to be.

2-Another interesting thing about this elections is what's going to happen next and I think that this election is the first step towards the disintegration of what used to be Iraq into three smaller states. Why? because Iraqis, ordinary ones, will vote again along sectarian lines which will, most probably, lead to the same combination of parties in power. This of course is better for the US as well cause it is easier for the US to deal with three smaller and shaky states than one unified and stronger state especially when the powers that be in these three smaller fractions will be bending far backwards and will do anything to stay in power and keep things the way they are for them and knowing how scared each one of these smaller states will be from the other two will make this a whole lot easier, don't you think?

3-One of the other things that is worth mentioning is how clever the Iranians have been in playing their cards in Iraq. They got Al Hakeem, whom is their strongest and favorite boy but to keep their ducks in a row so to speak, they got Al Maliki fighting with Al Hakeem for more power and influence and to keep things even more interesting, they got Al Sadr as the Joker card that they chose not to use for the time being against either or both just because they don't need to! So we now have both Al Hakeem and Al Maliki literally struggling to prove their allegiance to Iran and don't be fooled by the recent nationalistic gestures that Al Maliki has shown recently. It's all tricks to get more of his followers elected to the provincial councils and prove to Iran that he is the man that get things done.

4-The Kurds will "eventually" get what they want thanks to the increasing US satisfaction with their continuing and persisting expression of "unlimited loyalty" and for the record, the Kurds are their most loyal allies in Iraq from the US point of view since they have no Iraqi nationalistic or Arab or patriotic inclinations what so ever coupled with no religious dogmatism. This makes the Kurds the perfect partner for the US. Let's not forget the fact that they also are working really hard on improving their relations with the Israelis and Jews starting with the Talibani's son, Qabad!

5-The Sunnis have lost it! they are today weaker than they ever were. Thanks to their political naivety, disorganization and just plain stupidity. I won't be surprised if they lost the Speaker of the Parliament position
(the only relevant government position) cause the other political powers now know how divided and weak they are. They will definitely get the shortest end of the stick if you know what I mean!