Provincial Elections, Obama and the Future of Iraq

It will be interesting to see the outcome of the provincial elections that took place in Iraq earlier today. I am not very optimistic about it considering the short history of the absolutely corrupt and dysfunctional political and governmental system in Iraq coupled with a largely ignorant, religiously brain-washed, non-patriotic people. I expect that the majority of the political parties will keep a strong hold on the majority of the representation in these provincial elections not because of the massive electoral votes but owing to the fact that these parties without a shadow of a doubt will do ANYTHING to win in these elections whether it was legal or not!

I would like to zoom out a bit here and talk about other issues/factors that come into play on the back of these elections. these are;

1-First and foremost is Iran! Iran is pulling the strings behind the scenes in Iraq on ALL levels! The US, having screwed it up big time after the invasion, paved the way for Iran to be the most influential power in Iraq, in fact so powerful, even the US can't stand up to Iran in Iraq and they know it. Now, with Obama at the steering wheel, this fact counts and it's one of the major reasons the US is going to pull out because they (the US) lost the covert war to Iran in Iraq. Now let me get this straight, the US is NOT going to pull out of Iraq literally for Iran to take absolute control of Iraq and it's resources, they won't do that and they also can't politically afford to keep their troops in Iraq for much longer so what are their options? well, showmanship aside is to sit and talk to Iran about how to split the winnings in Iraq! huh! interesting isn't it? after all the trash talk show by Ahmadinejad and the very aggressive responses from the US so far but it is the most logical way ahead. I know many of you will sat that this is just nonsense but I beg to differ on this one! How the Iraq pie is going to be split is more of an unknown for me but I can see a reduced pressure on Iran from now on whilst the US negotiates with Iran on long term goals and interests in Iraq and that's exactly where Iran wants the US to be.

2-Another interesting thing about this elections is what's going to happen next and I think that this election is the first step towards the disintegration of what used to be Iraq into three smaller states. Why? because Iraqis, ordinary ones, will vote again along sectarian lines which will, most probably, lead to the same combination of parties in power. This of course is better for the US as well cause it is easier for the US to deal with three smaller and shaky states than one unified and stronger state especially when the powers that be in these three smaller fractions will be bending far backwards and will do anything to stay in power and keep things the way they are for them and knowing how scared each one of these smaller states will be from the other two will make this a whole lot easier, don't you think?

3-One of the other things that is worth mentioning is how clever the Iranians have been in playing their cards in Iraq. They got Al Hakeem, whom is their strongest and favorite boy but to keep their ducks in a row so to speak, they got Al Maliki fighting with Al Hakeem for more power and influence and to keep things even more interesting, they got Al Sadr as the Joker card that they chose not to use for the time being against either or both just because they don't need to! So we now have both Al Hakeem and Al Maliki literally struggling to prove their allegiance to Iran and don't be fooled by the recent nationalistic gestures that Al Maliki has shown recently. It's all tricks to get more of his followers elected to the provincial councils and prove to Iran that he is the man that get things done.

4-The Kurds will "eventually" get what they want thanks to the increasing US satisfaction with their continuing and persisting expression of "unlimited loyalty" and for the record, the Kurds are their most loyal allies in Iraq from the US point of view since they have no Iraqi nationalistic or Arab or patriotic inclinations what so ever coupled with no religious dogmatism. This makes the Kurds the perfect partner for the US. Let's not forget the fact that they also are working really hard on improving their relations with the Israelis and Jews starting with the Talibani's son, Qabad!

5-The Sunnis have lost it! they are today weaker than they ever were. Thanks to their political naivety, disorganization and just plain stupidity. I won't be surprised if they lost the Speaker of the Parliament position
(the only relevant government position) cause the other political powers now know how divided and weak they are. They will definitely get the shortest end of the stick if you know what I mean!

Iraqi Government Proves it Again!

So the Iraqi Government, having provided the Iraqis with all the necessities of everyday life on top of security never before heard of in the world and the Iraqis feel so lucky that they finally got a break from years and years of suffering and pain and overcoming insurmountable harsh living conditions without hope has finally paid off, so the patriotic Iraqi government, having done all this and more (the list is too long that it may take hundreds of blogs to cover that!!!), have decided to start paying attention to the very few things that need to be taken care of and one of this tiny things is the issue of the presence of Mujahidee Khalq, the Iranian opposition group in Iraq. Today, they have decided to practically seize their operation in Iraq and I won't be surprised if they hand them over to our "friends and neighbors" Iran.

Iran has since 2003, has left no stone unturned in pursuing harm to Iraq and Iraqis and played every dirty trick in the books to do so and what did our leaders in the government do? they return/reward that by kicking out one of the very few cards that they can almost readily use against Iran (that is if they want to use them in the first place which obviously is not the case!). This is politics 101, "IF" you want Iran to stop interfering in Iraq, start interfering in Iran by supporting the likes of Mujahidee Khalq and others and then you have a couple of cards that you can show on the negotiations table, otherwise, you have nothing to negotiate with. Obviously, that is not the intention of the Iraqi government here!!!!!

One last thing that I would like to remind the government and Mr Al Hakeem of is that during Saddam's era, many of the current militias in power including like Badr Brigades, were considered terrorist in the eyes of Saddam but Iran did not kick them out of Iran, on the contrary, Iran supported, trained and financed Al Badr brigade sparing it for a rainy day and the day came in 2003. Now we see Badr Brigades is well positioned in the Iraqi army, the interior ministry and many other sensitive position. Why not do what Iran did, I'm sure we Iraqis will benefit from Mujahidee Khalq some time in the future rather than kicking them out considering that these folks are un-armed?

Al Maliki's Visit to Tehran

So Mr. Al Maliki is just back from Tehran where he was trying to calm down the bosses' concerns regarding the security pact currently being discussed with the US. He is in a tight corner here, since he can't say NO to the US (knowing that without the US support, he will be out on his sorry a$$ at a drop of a hat) and he also knows that if the bosses in Tehran (having done a great job infiltrating the Iraqi government up to the highest levels for the past five years) were unhappy with his patriotic actions (yet to see some of these!) and decided to replace him, they can easily do that and in number of ways.

I am not sure what Al Maliki was really trying to get out of this visit? the official word is that he's trying to assure the bosses in Iran that any US bases in Iraq will not be used to launch any attacks against Iran in the future. Now I stand corrected here but having monitored the American way of doing things in Iraq, I don't think that the Americans will even bother telling him or the Iraqi government (current or future ones) of any plans to strike Iran. They just won't. Why would they? they will be taking the element of surprise out of it if you know what I mean! Anyway, I guess the whole purpose of the trip is to swear allegiance (again!) . As expected, Al Hakeem (Iran's main man, whom is already there) joined Al Maliki there but I don't really know under what official title he was representing Iraq? wait, on second thought, and considering how much Al Hakeem and his family own in Iraq by now, he does not really need any official title to talk on behalf of the Iraqis!

P.S.: Al Maliki had to take off his tie when he visited Ali Khamenei (!!!!) knowing that the ayatollah will not be happy to see one of the boys wearing a tie in his presence. A new low for Al Maliki let alone visiting Al Khomeini's burial ground.